Wheat production numbers were manipulated to show higher GDP. Now the inflated numbers result in shortages

Mysterious wheat surplus
By Pervez Tahir
One day the dream economic team had to face the consequences of its own actions. The current wheat crisis is a case of “as you sow, so shall you reap.” It used to be said before the base was revised that a million ton of additional wheat contributes half a percentage point to GDP growth.Of course a loss of wheat output of equal quantity would knock off the same percentage point of growth. After the change of base, the weight of wheat is less than before, but is still significant for a regime whose religion is growth. Any come down in terms of growth weakens its only legitimising argument.So growth must not only happen, it has to be high enough. In October last year, the data of large scale manufacturing for the first quarter of FY 2006-07 made it very clear that the high-pitched target of 13 per cent for the whole year would be impossible to achieve.No data was issued for the following two quarters, neither monthly nor quarterly, as is the practice. It had to be fixed by creative national accountants. If large scale manufacturing fails, a respectable overall growth is still possible if agriculture performs exceptionally well. Data for kharif crops – rice, sugar cane and cotton – becomes available in good time for the fiscal year. By March-April, the state of the news was not very good for cotton and rice. Sugar cane was the only crop worth talking about.All these data are presented by their source agencies at the annual meeting of the National Accounts Committee headed by Secretary, Statistics. In the light of information presented, this committee is competent to decide the growth rate that is published in the Economic Survey. The importance of the chair of this committee for a growth-crazy regime cannot be underestimated. It should come as no surprise that in the past seven years, all secretaries of statistics were either those nearing retirement and hoping to get extension or additional secretaries in-charge looking for promotion. Some have had the rare distinction of double extension even as additional secretary in-charge.This committee used to meet in the end of April or latest by early May. The practice was to have provisional estimates based for the year based on nine months data. All this has changed and this meeting is pushed as late in May as is expedient. The effort is to include a good estimate of wheat, a big ticket item. Being a rabi crop, its output can only be judged about this time. The PR advice is that a bumper crop not announced with the budget is like it never happened.This time the pressure to perform was much greater. In an election year, a bumper wheat crop and the achievement of the trade-mark growth rate of GDP of seven per cent would be the best argument for policy (read political) continuity. There was no way to achieve this GDP target without a bumper wheat crop. The target fixed for wheat was not based on an expectation of bumper crop. It was 22.5 million tons and was ambitious any way when compared with the actual production of 21.3 million tons and 21.6 million tons in the previous two years.The provinces, whose job it is to provide crop estimates, are stated to have reported a total of 22 million tons, which was higher than the previous two years but less than the target by half a million ton. This would have undermined the targeted GDP growth of seven per cent and, therefore, utterly unacceptable. Some midnight oil was burnt and, lo and behold, the target of 22.5 million tons was not only achieved but surpassed by as much as a million ton. With 23.5 million tons of wheat, the GDP growth rate of seven per cent was credibly achieved. The announcement of the outcome of the deliberations of the lowly National Accounts Committee came, for the first time in the history of its 86 meetings, directly from the Prime Minister’s Secretariat.Even 22 million tons is a comfortable level of output and does not signal a difficult situation to the market despite the extra demand of Ramazan. Prices came under pressure when attempt was made to export a non-existent surplus.With an eye on the elections which cost money, the lords of the land asked their ministry, the ministry of agriculture and food, to seek permission for exporting wheat. With a bumper crop and rising world prices, how could the permission have been refused? The bad experience of exporting wheat at the time of an earlier bumper crop, a real one, was forgotten. The venerable Mr Shafi Niaz, who then was Advisor on Agriculture and a passionate advocate of support prices, was accused by the dream economic team of an economic mentality of shortages in an era of surpluses.So the ministry of agriculture lost no time and exported half a million tons. This brought down the actual supply of 22 million tons to 21.5 million tons. With orders for more, prices in domestic market started to rise, not only due to reduced supply but also in sympathy with the rapidly rising world prices. The panic ban on export of wheat and wheat-related products confirmed what the market had already discovered, that there never was a surplus. But the damage had already been done. The decision to import one million ton at prices way above received for the half a million ton exported, only shows how costly it was to jack up GDP growth on the basis of a spurious surplus.It is not even amusing to see those having claimed success of first generation reform and want to go on and on to do their second generation reform, speak the language of run-off-the-mill politicians. To warn smugglers and hoarders of actions for which either no machinery exists or it has been weakened in the name of good governance, to talk of price magistrates and subsidies to utility stores, and to rely on bans rather than duties is a retreat that reformers are failing to admit. What to speak of action against private hoarders, the official hoarders – the provinces holding on to over four million tons – have ignored the dream team.The provinces have the last laugh because the economic team had gone out of the way to encourage credit to private sector to build stocks in competition with the corrupt and inefficient food departments. As for the smuggling, the market has always catered for it, whatever the level of production. To say that two million tons have been smuggled and hoarded is an attempt to cover up the lack of integrity in the estimation of wheat crop.Perhaps the dream economic team needs to learn some old generation lessons from a populist politician. Once atta prices go out of hand, there is no end to this atta-push inflation. Everyone who can raise the price of goods or services s(h)e sells, will do so and those who cannot, will protest. With a high incidence of poverty and no social protection worth the name, atta continues to weigh higher in ordinary budgets than the price indices assume.

Nearly 75% of call centres have shut down: ACCO chief

Nearly 75% of call centres have shut down: ACCO chief

By Romail KennethKARACHI:

Nearly 75 percent of the registered call centres have either closed down, or are using the call centres equipments for other businesses. The business of call centres in Pakistan is badly hurt and is declining due to the political crisis in the country, said Abdullah Butt President, Association of Call Centre Operators (ACCO) Pakistan. Mr Butt said the call centre business is totally dependent upon the international business contracts, and the international companies choose to outsource their work to a country, where they are confident that their investment will not go into the drain due to the absence of law and order or political uncertainty. The blame is on the foreign trade missions abroad, who have failed to present the actual picture of Pakistan to the prospective business houses internationally, he added. He said there is a wrong perception about foreign direct investment in call centres, as most of the call centres have been created with local investments by either public offerings, industrial groups, or individuals. At present the future of the call centre industry is facing a tough time and in the current scenario the industry analysts are forecasting further decline. However, apart from the country’s negative image in the international market for the potential business providers non cooperative behaviour of PTCL, the bandwidth provider to the call centers, lacks qualified HR professionals and is also playing a major role in the declining trend of the industry, he added. The president ACCO himself admitted that only a few years ago, call centres’ business was booming in Pakistan. Many youngsters were employed in large numbers at those call centres. However, with the passage of time, the call centres were reportedly losing their glamour and are becoming a less important feature of the business sector in Pakistan. On the other hand one of the most interesting fact is that the ACCO itself does not know how many call centres are operating in the country. When Daily Times conducted a survey of the call centres in Karachi, it was revealed that most of the call centres were offering low salaries and some of them are offering less than Rs 8,000 for duty of eight to ten hours. While in every Sunday’s newspaper you can see call centres’ executives offering attractive salaries, but when people go over for an interview they are offered less than five figures. According to most of the call centres’ employees call centres have started losing charm. This is, firstly, because the job is stressful in nature. Unlike other ordinary jobs, the call centres’ employees work at night, because night hours in Asia coincide with working hours in Europe and US, where the customers of the companies are living. Thus, the call centres’ employees are deprived of their night’s sleep and a majority of them cannot keep up with such a job for a long time.It is quite unfortunate that 10 percent of English-speaking people outside the US and United Kingdom live in Pakistan, but there are only a few call centres here while in India there are more than 350,000, which constitute a big revenue earning industry. According to the industry’s analysts, the overseas clients continuously wanted the price to be lowered, which adversely affected the quality of service. Poor quality of service, in some cases, resulted in frustration to customers who sometimes use insulting tones while complaining to the operators. The Indian operators naturally did not like abusive customers. This was one of the reasons why the majority of the call centres’ employees decided to quit their jobs in the very first year.

Bin Laden has a 46% approval rating in Pakistan. US 19% and al Qaeda 43 %

Poll: Bin Laden tops Musharraf in Pakistan

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf -- a key U.S. ally -- is less popular in his own country than al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, according to a poll of Pakistanis conducted last month by an anti-terrorism organization.

Additionally, nearly three-fourths of poll respondents said they oppose U.S. military action against al Qaeda and the Taliban inside Pakistan, according to results from the poll conducted by the independent polling organization Terror Free Tomorrow.
"We have conducted 23 polls all over the Muslim world, and this is the most disturbing one we have conducted," said Ken Ballen, the group's head. "Pakistan is the one Muslim nation that has nuclear weapons, and the people who want to use them against us -- like the Taliban and al Qaeda -- are more popular there than our allies like Musharraf."
The poll was conducted for Terror Free Tomorrow by D3 Systems of Vienna, Virginia., and the Pakistan Institute for Public Opinion. Interviews were conducted August 18-29, face-to-face with 1,044 Pakistanis across 105 urban and rural sampling points in all four provinces across the nation. Households were randomly selected.
According to poll results, bin Laden has a 46 percent approval rating. Musharraf's support is 38 percent. U.S. President George W. Bush's approval: 9 percent.
Asked their opinion on the real purpose of the U.S.-led war on terror, 66 percent of poll respondents said they believe the United States is acting against Islam or has anti-Muslim motivation. Others refused to answer the question or said they did not know.
"We failed in winning hearts and minds in Pakistan," Ballen told CNN. "In fact, only 4 percent said we had a good motivation in the war on terrorism."
Seventy-four percent said they oppose U.S. military action against al Qaeda and the Taliban inside Pakistan.
After American relief efforts following the October 2005 earthquake in Pakistan's Kashmir region, 46 percent of Pakistanis had a positive opinion of the United States, according to the poll. But as of last month, only 19 percent reported a favorable opinion.
Meanwhile, al Qaeda has a 43 percent approval rate; the Taliban has a 38 percent approval rate; and local radical extremist groups had an approval rating between 37 percent to 49 percent.
Views of U.S. could improve, responses indicate
There were a few bright spots in the poll results, however. Opposition leader Benazir Bhutto -- a relatively moderate and progressive figure, as well as a woman -- had a 63 percent approval rating.
Seventy-five percent of poll respondents said suicide bombings are rarely or never justified.

And a majority of Pakistanis said their opinion of the United States would improve if, among other things, there were increases in American aid to Pakistan, American business investments and the number of visas issued for Pakistanis to work in the United States.
Terror Free Tomorrow is a non-partisan, nonprofit group in Washington, D.C., and according to its Web site is "the only organization dedicated to a new strategic vision: Leading the fight against terror by winning the popular support that empowers global

Some Frontier Corps jawans desert force

Some Frontier Corps jawans desert force

By Iqbal KhattakPESHAWAR: Some jawans of the Frontier Corps (FC) are reportedly deserting the force due to regular and violent attacks by the militants in the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan, sources told Daily Times on Friday. Military spokesman Major General Waheed Arshad, however, called the desertion of a “few jawans insignificant incidents”.An FC soldier who met Daily Times earlier this week said he had deserted from the force days before his deployment to North Waziristan because he did not “want to fight his own people”. The soldier, asking not to be named, said that he did not desert the force because he feared death, but it was difficult for him to understand whether the fighting in Waziristan was “Islamic or not”. Asked why he thought so now after remaining in the force for 14 years, the soldier said: “This question is haunting several other soldiers and this confusion is stopping them from putting up a tough fight.” “We ask ourselves that if we die fighting in Waziristan will we be martyrs? No one is here to give an answer,” said the deserter who is now looking for a job to feed his family. Maj Gen Arshad said that small-scale desertions could take place in any force and in any country for one reason or another. He added that thousands of people had enrolled for recruitment in the FC recently. The deserter hails from a poor eastern suburb of Peshawar where around six FC jawans reportedly deserted the force – the first line of defence against the Taliban and Al Qaeda elements in North and South Waziristan. Another deserter said that insufficient salary was also one of the reasons the soldiers had deserted the force. “I was being paid Rs 4,500 only,” he said. There are also reports of desertion among army soldiers in Waziristan, but these desertions don’t reflect the overall situation prevailing among the security forces. By 2006, more than 700 soldiers, including officers, were reported killed in clashes in the ongoing war on terror. A military officer said the army suffered higher casualties because “the soldiers do not follow the standard operation procedures”.

US permitted forces to enter Pakistan

US permitted forces to enter Pakistan’

SAN FRANCISCO: Newly uncovered “rules of engagement” in the war on terror show the US military gave elite units broad authority more than three years ago to pursue suspected terrorists in Pakistan, with no mention of telling Pakistanis in advance.

The documents obtained by The Associated Press offer a detailed glimpse at what US Army Rangers and other terrorist-hunting units were authorised to do earlier in the war on terror. And interviews with military officials suggest some of those same guidelines have remained in place, such as the right to “hot pursuit” across the border.

Pakistan, a key US partner in the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, has long viewed such incursions as a threat to its sovereignty. Islamabad protested loudly this month when Democratic presidential candidate Senator Barack Obama pledged to grant US forces the authority to unilaterally penetrate Pakistan in the hunt for terrorist leaders. Washington repeated assurances it would consult before any such incursions.

But summaries of the rules of engagement on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border in April 2004 say chasing Al Qaeda leaders across the frontier was fair game. One summary states that entry into Pakistan was authorised for the following reasons: “Hot pursuit of Al Qaeda, Taliban and terrorist command-and-control targets from Afghanistan into Pakistan.”

If the head of US Central Command, which oversees American forces in the Middle East and Central Asia, approved direct action “against The Big 3,” listed as Osama bin Laden; his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahri; and Taliban supreme leader Mullah Omar. The three are still believed to be hiding in the border region. If the US defense secretary approved such an incursion.

Other grounds for incursions into Pakistan, according to this summary, were “personnel recovery,” including rescuing troops after the downing of aircraft; and troops “in contact with” the enemy, meaning under fire.

As for “geographic limits,” the memo states, “General rule: penetrate no deeper than 10 km”.

Told of the guidelines, Pakistan Army Spokesman Major General Waheed Arshad said, “This is all nonsense. Pakistan never allowed the coalition forces to enter into our territory while chasing militants. There was no such agreement, there was no such understanding.” Pentagon spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Todd Vician said this week that he could not comment. “As a policy we don’t talk about rules of engagement, certainly not about current rules in place for any operations in Afghanistan, Iraq or any other operation,” he said. ap

Hate calls made to families of RAF members from Pakistan

Taliban terrorises RAF families

By TOM NEWTON DUNN Defence EditorAugust 22, 2007
COMMENT ON THIS STORY
TALIBAN fanatics terrorised the wife of an RAF officer by phoning her and saying: “You’ll never see your husband alive — we have just killed him.”
Rebels in Afghanistan are targeting British forces’ families with hate calls after tapping into Our Boys’ mobile phones.
The tearful wife rang the RAF fearing the worst after receiving the midnight call — and was told her husband was safe and well.
But the Taliban calls are a sick new plot to destroy morale, and British forces in Afghanistan have now been BANNED from using mobiles.
Army chiefs believe extremists are using sophisticated eavesdropping equipment to trace home numbers when forces call their loved ones in Britain.
Intelligence analysts have tracked the hate calls to numbers in Pakistan, a hotbed for Islamic extremism and the Taliban’s prime recruiting ground.


Pakistan’s notorious ISI spy agency — a known supporter of the Taliban — is believed to be intercepting Our Boys’ calls. It is also feared the Taliban may be getting intercept information from Iran.
Now all British troops’ welfare calls have to be made on secure military phone lines. But squaddies are fuming as they are only allowed 30 minutes’ call time each week.
One senior officer said: “We assume these days that every conversation over mobile phones is being heard by our enemies.
“They have some pretty powerful friends and allies, who are giving them some very sophisticated help. They will use that information in any way they can to damage us, whether it is physically or mentally.”
Hate calls are the latest tactic in the ever-more sophisticated war raging in Afghanistan’s lawless south.
A British forces spokesman in Afghanistan confirmed the hate calls, adding: “We are fully aware of the security implications of using personal mobile phones in Afghanistan and have therefore imposed a ban on their use to protect individuals and their families.”
The MoD confirmed that families of troops in Iraq have also suffered from “nuisance calls” in the past year.

Pakistani minister says jews behind 9/11

Minister blasts pro-US foreign policy
By Our Staff Reporter
ISLAMABAD, Aug 21: Federal Minister for Parliamentary Affairs Dr Sher Afgan Niazi on Tuesday stunned both the treasury and opposition senators when he roundly criticised the foreign policy, describing it as one of appeasement at the cost of national interests, sovereignty and honour.He also condemned recently-passed US legislation and the derogatory statements about Pakistan made by some American presidential candidates.Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal’s Prof Khurshid Ahmed immediately stood up to endorse most of the views expressed by the minister, and welcomed the “change of heart,” describing it as part of the change that had taken place in the wake of the July 20 landmark Supreme Court judgment.Interestingly, taking cognizance of the strongly-worded speech of the minister, the Foreign Office reacted officially, saying that only the foreign minister’s statement would be true representation of Pakistan’s foreign policy and Pakistan’s relations with various countries.However, not a single PPP or the PML-N lawmaker took part in the debate during which statements of US presidential candidates and a recently-approved Pakistan-specific law were severely criticised.Commenting on the statements made in the Senate on Tuesday, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that the foreign mQinister would wind up the debate on the subject on Aug 22.Dr Niazi said in his speech that the key role Pakistan played in bringing about the downfall of the former Soviet Union was a blunder. It resulted in the emergence of a unipolar world and gave the US a licence to attack any country it wished, he said.He said that American presidential candidates’ statements threatening Pakistan’s internal security were a reflection of the jaundiced thinking of US leaders who had forgotten lessons of history and the glorious past of Muslims.Lashing out at the recent US law attaching strings to financial assistance to Pakistan, Dr Niazi described it as insulting and demanded that “we must return and refuse to accept such assistance”.He said the country should learn to stand on its own feet by rejecting all foreign assistance as a proud Muslim nation.Recounting events of the 1971 war with India and the country’s dismemberment, he said Islamabad kept waiting for the arrival of the Sixth US fleet in the Bay of Bengal as had been promised by the then US government. But the fleet never turned up, he said, adding that no good should be expected of the US in future as well.He said while the US officials never stopped the mantra of “do more”, ignoring the fact that Islamabad had rendered tremendous sacrifices in the war on terror, the US signed a civil nuclear agreement with India, instead of Pakistan. He said while India was encouraged when it had carried out nuclear tests in 1974 and 1998, heavy sanctions were slapped on Pakistan when it conducted nuclear tests and aspersions were still being cast on nuclear assets of the country.The minister said that events which followed the 9/11 incident proved that it was the brainchild of Jews. He said that according to holy Quran, Jews and Christians could never be friends of Muslims.Prof Khurshid Ahmed of the MMA said that the American presidential candidates’ statements had exposed Gen Musharraf’s US-centric policies, because after staking everything, national interest, pride and sovereignty Pakistan was still accused of doing little in the so-called war on terror.He said while the Iranian leadership had staunchly resisted the US pressure with full backing of its people, Pakistan’s military government had abjectly surrendered to the US dictates because of lack of genuine support from the people.He accused Gen Musharraf of compromising everything on a single telephone call of the American President.Treasury bench members Nisar Memon and Anwar Bhinder supported President Musharraf’s foreign policy, saying it was based on “ground realities”.Dr Kausar Firdaus called for review and revision of the foreign policy, and said the government should consider withdrawing Pakistan from the so-called war on terror that had cost the country dearly in terms of losses of life and national dignity.Senator Shahid Bugti said that an individual had put the country’s solidarity at risk only to prolong his rule.

National Security Archive Documents: Pakistan and the taliban

National Security Archive Electronic Briefing

Documents Detail Years of Pakistani Support for Taliban, Extremists

Document 17
From [Excised] to DIA Washington D.C., "IIR [Excised] Pakistan Involvement in Afghanistan," November 7, 1996, Confidential, 2 pp. [Excised]
Similar to the October 22, 1996 Intelligence Information Report (IIR), this IIR reiterates how "Pakistan's ISI is heavily involved in Afghanistan," but also details different roles various ISI officers play in Afghanistan. Stating that Pakistan uses sizable numbers of its Pashtun-based Frontier Corps in Taliban-run operations in Afghanistan, the document clarifies that, "these Frontier Corps elements are utilized in command and control; training; and when necessary - combat. Elements of Pakistan's regular army force are not used because the army is predominantly Punjabi, who have different features as compared to the Pashtun and other Afghan tribes."
According to the document, Pakistan's Frontier Corps provide some of the combat training in Kandahar or Herat provided to Pakistani madrassa students that come to Afghanistan to fight with the Taliban. The parents of these students apparently know nothing regarding their child's military involvement with the Taliban "until their bodies are brought back to Pakistan."

Britain Best Friend, Pakistan Worse for Americans

Britain Best Friend, Pakistan Worse for Americans

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Out of a list of 25 countries, most people in the United States regard Britain as their country’s closest ally, according to a poll by Harris Interactive. 70 per cent of respondents feel this way about Britain, while at least 42 per cent also see Israel, Australia and Canada as close allies.

Conversely, 37 per cent of respondents believe Pakistan is an enemy of the U.S., followed by China and Colombia with 23 per cent each, and Russia with 17 per cent.

Following the 9/11 terrorist attacks against the U.S., Britain committed troops to both the war on terrorism in Afghanistan and the U.S.-led coalition effort in Iraq. In his address to the U.S. Congress in September 2001, U.S. president George W. Bush declared, "America has no truer friend than Great Britain."

On Aug. 11, Bush and French president Nicolas Sarkozy met in Maine. Sarkozy discussed his views on bilateral relations, saying, "The U.S. is a large, big democracy. It’s a country of freedom and it’s a country that we’ve always admired because it’s the county that brought a constitution and freedom to the world. And France is friends with democracies, not with dictatorships."

France is regarded as a close ally of the U.S. by 20 per cent of respondents.

Polling Data

Do you feel that (country) is a close ally of the U.S., is friendly but not a close ally, is not friendly but not an enemy, or is unfriendly and is an enemy of the U.S.?

	Close ally	Friendly, but not a close ally	Not friendly, not an enemy	Unfriendly and enemy	Not sure
Britain	70%	21%	6%	1%	3%
Canada	57%	31%	9%	1%	2%
Australia	54%	28%	10%	1%	7%
Israel	42%	26%	19%	8%	5%
Japan	38%	34%	14%	10%	4%
Italy	35%	40%	16%	3%	7%
South Korea	29%	25%	20%	20%	6%
Germany	28%	39%	20%	6%	8%
Mexico	27%	39%	21%	10%	4%
Norway	27%	38%	21%	2%	12%
Netherlands	26%	44%	18%	1%	12%
Spain	25%	48%	16%	2%	8%
Sweden	22%	50%	19%	2%	7%
Greece	20%	43%	24%	3%	10%
France	20%	38%	27%	11%	4%
Taiwan	20%	36%	27%	6%	11%
India	18%	43%	21%	8%	9%
Brazil	15%	39%	30%	3%	12%
Chile	12%	39%	27%	7%	14%
South Africa	10%	42%	31%	5%	12%
Argentina	8%	41%	29%	8%	14%
Colombia	8%	24%	33%	23%	12%
Russia	6%	33%	37%	17%	6%
China	5%	25%	40%	23%	6%
Pakistan	4%	21%	32%	37%	5%

Source: Harris Interactive
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,010 American adults, conducted from Jul. 10 to Jul. 16, 2007. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

Pak top brass talks with US to avert attacks

Pak top brass talks with US to avert attacks
Shaiq HussainISLAMABAD - In the backdrop of fierce clashes between the army, paramilitary forces and militants in North Waziristan, Pakistan’s top security brass is engaged in intense negotiations with senior officials in Washington to avert possible US attacks on the restive tribal belt.Strong indications from the US capital suggest growing restlessness among the security cadres over the surge in violence in Pakistan’s tribal belt and the alleged regrouping of Al-Qaeda and Taliban there.The diplomatic circles here believe that the Bush administration was under increased pressure to mount assaults against the Al-Qaeda and Taliban militants in Waziristan from Afghanistan. They said that in such a worrisome scenario, Pakistan was all out in its contacts with the top officials in Bush administration to avert possible military action from the US led allied forces on its soil fearing it would lead to catastrophic repercussions.Sensing the urgency and seriousness of situation, Pakistani security forces on Sunday targeted the militants and killed six Taliban fighters in North Waziristan where the overnight battles left 13 miscreants dead. After the scrapping of North Waziristan peace deal few days back by the militants that Pakistan had reached at with the tribesmen last year, the military and paramilitary forces have been trying their best to control the spiraling violence. A diplomatic source said that Islamabad had been trying to impress upon the Bush administration that any attack on Waziristan or any other tribal area from outside would only add to the militancy in Pakistan.“Pakistani officials have been urging restrain during their interaction with the US. Authorities while telling them that Islamabad’s policy of talks for the revival of North Waziristan peace deal along with the use of force when and where it is required must be given a chance as it would bear fruits,” he said.

Wheat production numbers were manipulated to show higher GDP

Unreliable wheat output figure upsets Minfal
MUSHTAQ GHUMMAN
ISLAMABAD (July 06 2007): The Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock (Minfal) is facing embarrassment due to unreliable wheat output statistics as some of the policy makers are contesting the production figures of 23.5 million tonnes.Business Recorder on Thursday interviewed some government officials and private sector individuals who were unanimous that the actual wheat production was about 21 million tonnes but the government projected it at 23.5 million apparently to show GDP growth of 7.02 per cent in 2006-07."Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz, in his speech to the National Economic Council (NEC) on May 31, said that production of wheat was 23.523 million tonnes, the highest ever in the country. "I am a witness to it that last year one million tonne wheat was added in the overall wheat production figures just on telephone call to improve the GDP growth figures," claimed one of the top official on condition of anonymity.He was of the view that this year too the same technique was used to show that GDP growth has surpassed 7 percent, which was earlier projected at 6.5 percent.The sources said that the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) of the cabinet which met a week ago had a heated debate on the wheat prices issue as two of the federal ministers criticised the decision makers especially Minfal and Prices Committee headed by the Prime Minister Advisor on Finance Salman Shah for their failure to take timely action to control wheat and flour prices."Federal Minister for Railways Sheikh Rashid Ahmad and Minister for Industries and Production, Jahangir Khan Tareen were the main critics of government's slow moving decision on wheat and flour situation," the sources added.The sources said that Agriculture Minister Sikandar Khan Bosan and Dr Ashfaque Hasan Khan, Economic Advisor to the Finance Ministry were angry over the remarks of Sheikh Rashid and Jahangir Tareen. The sources said that Commerce Secretary Asif Shah was also one of the officials who had a tough time in the ECC for not issuing SROs timely and seeking R&D support for leather garments.Dr Ashfaque Hasan Khan informed the journalists last week that the ECC took serious notice of increase in the prices of wheat and wheat flour at a time when Pakistan achieved highest ever production of over 23.5 million tonnes. As regards the stock position, the total stock of wheat with the government as on June 25 was 4.795 million tonnes with the government. In addition the private sector is holding over 2 million tonnes, Ashfaque claimed.

US-Nato strikes in Shawal also injured six soldiers

US-Nato strikes in Shawal also injured six soldiers

By our correspondent

PESHAWAR: Six Army soldiers were among the 15 persons who sustained injuries in the bombing and shelling by US-led coalition forces in Shawal valley in North Waziristan last Saturday.This fact wasn’t known or reported until now. But official sources in North Waziristan told The News on Monday that bombs and artillery shells fired from Afghanistan’s territory also hit a joint Pakistan Army and paramilitary Frontier Corps post near the border in Shawal valley. The post was damaged and six soldiers deployed there were injured.Requesting anonymity, a government official said the six wounded soldiers and nine civilians injured in the bombing by US-led coalition warplanes and artillery and mortar shelling were evacuated to Bannu in helicopter and admitted to a military hospital there. Some of the injured were stated to be in critical condition.The cross-border raid by US and Nato forces in the Mana and Mangratay areas of Shawal valley killed about a dozen people, including women and children. Also last Saturday, US-manufactured jet-fighters and Apache helicopters attacked the Tor Jawar village near the border town of Angoor Adda in South Waziristan and killed 21 people, all villagers and including women and children. Almost 40 people were injured in the attack. The Pakistan government ignored the violation of its borders twice that day and didn’t even acknowledge that a Pakistani village had been bombed by US-led coalition aircraft and 21 to 25 people had been killed.

US forces attack Pakistan with jets/helicopters/artillery

Man lost nine members of family in Nato strike; kills himself
By Our Correspondent
WANA, June 24: An elderly man has committed suicide following the death of nine members of his family in the recent Nato bombing in the Mandi Zawar area of the mountainous Shawal region near the Afghan border, local people said.Pikhawar Khan, 70, of the Gangikhel tribe committed suicide when he saw the bodies of nine members of his family, including three women and four children, a journalist of the area associated with a foreign television network told this correspondent during a visit to the area.Quoting local people, he said only one child of Mr Khan’s family survived the bombing by helicopter gunships and aircraft.“First, light-emitting balls were fired which lit up the area. Then machinegun rounds and artillery shells were fired from planes and helicopters, which shook the entire area,” witnesses said. They said a small restaurant was hit by rockets, injuring 11 people.The helicopters fired on the makeshift house of Pikhawar Khan, killing his nine family members.The forest-covered Shawal area is pressed into North and South Waziristan agencies. Many families had shifted to the area for cutting timber after local tribes lifted the ban on forest harvesting.Residents said that after bombing the Zawar area, the helicopters and jets started pounding the nearby Rakha area along the Afghan border in the South Waziristan Agency. Nato and US-led forces started intense shelling on houses in Rakha in which 20 people were killed and scores of others injured.Two of the injured were taken to a hospital in Wana. In the Rakha area, eight houses were hit by rockets and heavy gunfire. Reports say people have started evacuating Mandi Zawar in the North Waziristan Agency as tension has gripped the area.

Pakistan's soldiers 'huddling in their bases' in tribal regions

Pakistan's soldiers 'huddling in their bases' in tribal regions

· Army paralysed by Taliban threat, says ex-CIA agent· Retired officers accused of helping militants Declan Walsh in IslamabadSaturday June 16, 2007The Guardian
The Pakistani army is paralysed by the growing Taliban threat and some retired officers are covertly aiding the militants, according to a former CIA officer.
Soldiers posted to Waziristan, a tribal area that hosts an estimated 2,000 al-Qaida fighters, are "huddling in their bases, doing nothing", said Art Keller, a CIA case officer who was posted to Pakistan last year.
"Their approach was to pretend that nothing was wrong because any other approach would reveal that they were unwilling and unable to do anything about Talibanisation," said Mr Keller, who has visited Waziristan.


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The Pakistani military insists it is doing its best. President Pervez Musharraf has repeatedly referred to the 80,000 soldiers posted to the tribal areas, about 700 of whom have been killed in action.
But Mr Keller said that behind the scenes the fight was riven by divisions among the officers. "There are the moderates who fear Talibanisation, the professional jihadis who want to embrace the Taliban again, and the middle group who aren't too fond of the Taliban but resent doing anything under pressure from the US out of sheer bloody-minded stubbornness," he said. "Because of [that], the Pakistani military remains paralysed."
Mr Keller alleged that retired army officers, including the former spy chief Hamid Gul, were secretly supporting the Taliban. "To the degree that they aren't arrested or forced to cease and desist, they are tacitly tolerated," he said. Gen Gul, who has faced similar accusations before, said last night: "I morally support the movement to end the American occupation of Afghanistan. But there is no physical dimension to it, no hidden agenda."
Mr Keller's comments come at a sensitive time in US-Pakistani relations. Since 2001 Washington has given Pakistan $10bn (£5bn) in exchange for counter-terrorism cooperation. But although hundreds of al-Qaida figures have been arrested, Osama bin Laden remains at liberty and Taliban attacks on Afghanistan have soared.
On Thursday the US assistant secretary of state Richard Boucher visited Quetta, the capital of the western province of Baluchistan where Nato officials say the Taliban has a headquarters. The chief minister of Baluchistan, Jam Muhammad Yousaf, told him that "Mullah Omar or Osama bin Laden are not [here]", according to a government statement.
Uzbek, Arab, Chechen and Somali militants are sheltering in Waziristan, to the north of Baluchistan. The majority Uzbeks are concentrated around Mir Ali in north Waziristan, where they have allied with local fighters - self styled "Pakistani Taliban" - to coordinate attacks inside Afghanistan.
Gen Musharraf's efforts to stem the violence through a controversial peace deal with the militants have failed, and in recent months "Talibanisation" has spread north out of the tribal belt and into North-West Frontier Province, with attacks on music shops, barbers and government officials.
But Mr Keller said American efforts to catch the ringleaders were being thwarted by Pakistani rules restricting CIA agents to heavily guarded military camps. "Limited freedom of movement and limited freedom to directly engage locals were, and remain, the biggest obstacles to success," he said. Critics say the CIA has also inflamed the situation through secretive attacks by Predator aeroplanes on al-Qaida targets that have killed dozens of civilians.
Last year the CIA revived efforts to hunt bin Laden and his deputy Ayman al Zawahiri. Mr Keller doubted they were in Waziristan. "I don't think the two top guys are there but some roads leading to them run through there," he said.
Excessive pressure from Washington was also hampering the chase, he added. Spies needed peace and quiet to "spin webs and wait for the flies to come", he said. "Such a manhunt is chess, not checkers."

Cut-Pasted survey statistics challanged(Large scale manufacturing numbers manufactured)

Cut-Pasted survey statistics challanged
By Israr Khan
ISLAMABAD: Draftsmen who were given the job at the Ministry of Finance to typewrite the Economic Survey 2006-07 have apparently cut-pasted the previous year's material, as a number of misrepresentation of facts have gone into the new survey.The survey's chapter on Manufacturing and Mining is full of errors and blunders. It has been totally cut-pasted only some digits and years have been changed, while the sense of text which has to be replaced in new survey remained the same as was in last year's Economic Survey 2005-06.The credibility of the official statistics is also evident from the fact that the statistics of the large-scale manufacturing used to be released on monthly basis some years ago.After July-September figures were not satisfactory for the government, they were stopped and did not appear in the last two quarterly reports of the State Bank of Pakistan, which is unusual. Suddenly they were manipulated to attain 7.0 percent growth target.All of a sudden July-April figures were released for inclusion in the National Accounts Statistics. Economic Survey contained July-April figures in grotesque manner.This gives an impression of concocted figures. In the chapter the poor and wrong representation of digits and facts is evident from the fact that the survey says, “Large-scale manufacturing, accounting for 69.5 percent of overall manufacturing registered an impressive growth of 8.75 percent in the current fiscal year 2006-07 against last year's achievement of 10.68 percent. There has been a slight decline in growth in the manufacturing sector due to multiple reasons like reduced production of cotton crop, sugar shortage, steel and iron problems and last but not the least global oil prices. All of these reasons contributed to reduced growth in 2006-07”. Should this not be called the fudging of facts or?As for instance, on page 35 in the introductory part, the survey says that overall decline in manufacturing sector during FY2006-07 was due to low cotton production, while in the very next page in table 3.1, it contradicts itself by stating that cotton yarn production grew by 11.9 percent and cotton cloth at 7 per cent over the previous fiscal. The Chapter also blamed sugar shortage as another reason for decline in manufacturing, while on the other, the survey say's that sugar production increased by 19.6 per cent in July-April 2006-07 over the corresponding period of the previous year.It says that there was a steel and iron shortage in 2006-07, while on the next page it says that billet production has increased by 11.18 percent to 3.11 million tones against the corresponding period of last fiscal. The chapter attributed reasonable growth to increasing demand for the durables but in the subsequent paragraphs it highlighted visible downward trend in the production in durables like TV and Cars.Besides, in mining and quarrying section of the chapter, it says that mineral industry is contributing to national economy just around 0.5 percent while in contrast on page 10 of Statistical appendix, table 1.2, it shows that during last four years its contribution to GDP was 2.6 per cent in 2003-04, 2.7 percent 2004-05 and 2.6 percent each in 2005-06 and in outgoing fiscal.Apart from all these, the survey claims, “High levels of liquidity in the banking system, an investment friendly interest rate environment, a stable exchange rate, low inflation, comfortable foreign exchange reserves, stronger domestic demand for consumer durables and high business confidence among other things will again boost the manufacturing sector growth rate up to a reasonable level”.In fiscal year 2006-07, the interest rate went up and tight monetary policy has resulted in substantial decline in credit to the private sector. In Chapter-1, lower growth in consumption is attributed to higher interest rates.Should it be called the ignorance of learned authors of the Economic Survey or manipulation or misrepresentation of facts?It also says that low inflation would contribute to LSM growth, but unfortunately, inflation during the fiscal year stood at 7.9 percent, which is substantially high.

Structural weaknesses of economy

Structural weaknesses of economy
EDITORIAL (June 13 2007): A prestigious international research organisation, BCA, in its special report on Pakistan's emerging markets strategy, has characterised the country's economy as structurally weak because of a low investment ratio and lack of competitiveness, says a Recorder Report.The report says that pressure on inflation/interest rates is on the upside, implying thereby that the odds for further growth are skewed to the downside. Further, trade accounts for a very small portion of Pakistan's GDP, and its export sector is struggling to maintain competitiveness in a few low value-added industries.More significantly, savings and investment patterns are poles apart as the country's savings and investment are much below a satisfactory level. The report lists spiralling trade deficit as a serious challenge to the country, and claims that Pakistan's 11 percent of GDP trade deficit has resulted from a combination of factors, which mainly include an uncompetitive export sector, with consumption outstripping domestic production.The report compares Pakistan's abysmally low spending on education, ie only 0.2 percent of the GDP, to Vietnam's allocation of 3.2 percent, which has put the latter in a better position than Pakistan to compete in manufacturing, given its development of human resources and infrastructure.According to BCA report, Pakistan's poor competitiveness is basically structural in nature, and a relatively cheap currency would not produce a significant revival in exports. Further, Pakistan cannot substitute its imports with domestic products simply because the imported goods are not produced by local firms.At the same time, any currency depreciation would only worsen the inflation dynamics, because the pass-through from the exchange rate to inflation has increased in Pakistan, thanks largely to a very large volume of imported consumer goods.Pakistan's growth is driven primarily by household consumption, which accounts for 7.8 percent of its GDP. Further, FDI inflows have been primarily channelled into the services sector because it is booming along with consumer spending. The macro fundamentals of Pakistan are thus inferior to those of many emerging economies. Structural problems have in fact contributed a lot towards Pakistan's economic woes.In particular, the state retains a prominent direct role in the economy and the tax system has been used extensively as a means of providing incentives to the possible detriment of revenue collection. Further, protectionist policies have shielded domestic producers from foreign competition, and have contributed to an anti-export bias. As tariff remains Pakistan's main trade policy instrument, its relative importance has increased as a result of elimination of non-tariff barriers on several items.As a consequence of a major restructuring of Pakistan's custom tariffs undertaken in 2001-02, the average applied tariff rate fell to 20.4 percent from 56 percent in 1993-04. However, tariff protection still remained relatively high.As a result, tariff remains a potential restraint on domestic competition, and this has served as an obstacle to efficient allocation of resources, creating adverse consequences for the economy's productivity and local firms export competitiveness.Pakistan has had a persistent current account deficit, although this was reduced considerably from 7.2 percent of GDP in 1995-96 to 1.9 percent in 2000-01, largely due to a substantial fall in the trade deficit. Further, Pakistan has always had a narrow export base concentrated in low-value added products and a few markets. And EU, the US and Japan have retained their positions as Pakistan's major trading partners. Further, border protection, which is now largely confined to tariffs, has been reduced drastically through unilateral cuts.Despite severe economic and political difficulties, Pakistan has by and large resisted protectionist pressures and opted for market-based reforms, including adoption of a more liberal attitude towards imports and foreign investment.Pakistan's long-term economic growth depends mainly on continued implementation of its economic revival programme, particularly in the reduction of direct state intervention in the economy, and improvements in the tax base. Secondly, Pakistan economy's long-term growth also depends on its trading partners' willingness to keep their markets open to Pakistan's goods and services. However, in order to achieve this objective, the government will have to ensure Pakistani products' competitiveness through strict quality control.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2007

Pakistani among those killed by U.S. attack in Somalia

American among those killed by U.S. attack in Somalia
By Mahad Elmi and Shashank Bengali
McClatchy Newspapers
MOGADISHU, Somalia - Somali officials confirmed on Sunday that an American was among the suspected Muslim radicals killed on Friday when a U.S. Navy warship fired missiles at a militant encampment in northern Somalia.
The American was not identified, but Hassan Dahir Mohamoud, the vice president of Puntland, the northern Somali region that declared itself semiautonomous in 1998, said that the American's passport had been recovered.
Five other foreigners were also killed in the strike, Mohamoud said, including citizens of Great Britain, Sweden, Morocco, Pakistan and Yemen. Two Somali nationals reportedly survived the U.S. missile strike.