Wheat production numbers were manipulated to show higher GDP. Now the inflated numbers result in shortages

Mysterious wheat surplus
By Pervez Tahir
One day the dream economic team had to face the consequences of its own actions. The current wheat crisis is a case of “as you sow, so shall you reap.” It used to be said before the base was revised that a million ton of additional wheat contributes half a percentage point to GDP growth.Of course a loss of wheat output of equal quantity would knock off the same percentage point of growth. After the change of base, the weight of wheat is less than before, but is still significant for a regime whose religion is growth. Any come down in terms of growth weakens its only legitimising argument.So growth must not only happen, it has to be high enough. In October last year, the data of large scale manufacturing for the first quarter of FY 2006-07 made it very clear that the high-pitched target of 13 per cent for the whole year would be impossible to achieve.No data was issued for the following two quarters, neither monthly nor quarterly, as is the practice. It had to be fixed by creative national accountants. If large scale manufacturing fails, a respectable overall growth is still possible if agriculture performs exceptionally well. Data for kharif crops – rice, sugar cane and cotton – becomes available in good time for the fiscal year. By March-April, the state of the news was not very good for cotton and rice. Sugar cane was the only crop worth talking about.All these data are presented by their source agencies at the annual meeting of the National Accounts Committee headed by Secretary, Statistics. In the light of information presented, this committee is competent to decide the growth rate that is published in the Economic Survey. The importance of the chair of this committee for a growth-crazy regime cannot be underestimated. It should come as no surprise that in the past seven years, all secretaries of statistics were either those nearing retirement and hoping to get extension or additional secretaries in-charge looking for promotion. Some have had the rare distinction of double extension even as additional secretary in-charge.This committee used to meet in the end of April or latest by early May. The practice was to have provisional estimates based for the year based on nine months data. All this has changed and this meeting is pushed as late in May as is expedient. The effort is to include a good estimate of wheat, a big ticket item. Being a rabi crop, its output can only be judged about this time. The PR advice is that a bumper crop not announced with the budget is like it never happened.This time the pressure to perform was much greater. In an election year, a bumper wheat crop and the achievement of the trade-mark growth rate of GDP of seven per cent would be the best argument for policy (read political) continuity. There was no way to achieve this GDP target without a bumper wheat crop. The target fixed for wheat was not based on an expectation of bumper crop. It was 22.5 million tons and was ambitious any way when compared with the actual production of 21.3 million tons and 21.6 million tons in the previous two years.The provinces, whose job it is to provide crop estimates, are stated to have reported a total of 22 million tons, which was higher than the previous two years but less than the target by half a million ton. This would have undermined the targeted GDP growth of seven per cent and, therefore, utterly unacceptable. Some midnight oil was burnt and, lo and behold, the target of 22.5 million tons was not only achieved but surpassed by as much as a million ton. With 23.5 million tons of wheat, the GDP growth rate of seven per cent was credibly achieved. The announcement of the outcome of the deliberations of the lowly National Accounts Committee came, for the first time in the history of its 86 meetings, directly from the Prime Minister’s Secretariat.Even 22 million tons is a comfortable level of output and does not signal a difficult situation to the market despite the extra demand of Ramazan. Prices came under pressure when attempt was made to export a non-existent surplus.With an eye on the elections which cost money, the lords of the land asked their ministry, the ministry of agriculture and food, to seek permission for exporting wheat. With a bumper crop and rising world prices, how could the permission have been refused? The bad experience of exporting wheat at the time of an earlier bumper crop, a real one, was forgotten. The venerable Mr Shafi Niaz, who then was Advisor on Agriculture and a passionate advocate of support prices, was accused by the dream economic team of an economic mentality of shortages in an era of surpluses.So the ministry of agriculture lost no time and exported half a million tons. This brought down the actual supply of 22 million tons to 21.5 million tons. With orders for more, prices in domestic market started to rise, not only due to reduced supply but also in sympathy with the rapidly rising world prices. The panic ban on export of wheat and wheat-related products confirmed what the market had already discovered, that there never was a surplus. But the damage had already been done. The decision to import one million ton at prices way above received for the half a million ton exported, only shows how costly it was to jack up GDP growth on the basis of a spurious surplus.It is not even amusing to see those having claimed success of first generation reform and want to go on and on to do their second generation reform, speak the language of run-off-the-mill politicians. To warn smugglers and hoarders of actions for which either no machinery exists or it has been weakened in the name of good governance, to talk of price magistrates and subsidies to utility stores, and to rely on bans rather than duties is a retreat that reformers are failing to admit. What to speak of action against private hoarders, the official hoarders – the provinces holding on to over four million tons – have ignored the dream team.The provinces have the last laugh because the economic team had gone out of the way to encourage credit to private sector to build stocks in competition with the corrupt and inefficient food departments. As for the smuggling, the market has always catered for it, whatever the level of production. To say that two million tons have been smuggled and hoarded is an attempt to cover up the lack of integrity in the estimation of wheat crop.Perhaps the dream economic team needs to learn some old generation lessons from a populist politician. Once atta prices go out of hand, there is no end to this atta-push inflation. Everyone who can raise the price of goods or services s(h)e sells, will do so and those who cannot, will protest. With a high incidence of poverty and no social protection worth the name, atta continues to weigh higher in ordinary budgets than the price indices assume.

Nearly 75% of call centres have shut down: ACCO chief

Nearly 75% of call centres have shut down: ACCO chief

By Romail KennethKARACHI:

Nearly 75 percent of the registered call centres have either closed down, or are using the call centres equipments for other businesses. The business of call centres in Pakistan is badly hurt and is declining due to the political crisis in the country, said Abdullah Butt President, Association of Call Centre Operators (ACCO) Pakistan. Mr Butt said the call centre business is totally dependent upon the international business contracts, and the international companies choose to outsource their work to a country, where they are confident that their investment will not go into the drain due to the absence of law and order or political uncertainty. The blame is on the foreign trade missions abroad, who have failed to present the actual picture of Pakistan to the prospective business houses internationally, he added. He said there is a wrong perception about foreign direct investment in call centres, as most of the call centres have been created with local investments by either public offerings, industrial groups, or individuals. At present the future of the call centre industry is facing a tough time and in the current scenario the industry analysts are forecasting further decline. However, apart from the country’s negative image in the international market for the potential business providers non cooperative behaviour of PTCL, the bandwidth provider to the call centers, lacks qualified HR professionals and is also playing a major role in the declining trend of the industry, he added. The president ACCO himself admitted that only a few years ago, call centres’ business was booming in Pakistan. Many youngsters were employed in large numbers at those call centres. However, with the passage of time, the call centres were reportedly losing their glamour and are becoming a less important feature of the business sector in Pakistan. On the other hand one of the most interesting fact is that the ACCO itself does not know how many call centres are operating in the country. When Daily Times conducted a survey of the call centres in Karachi, it was revealed that most of the call centres were offering low salaries and some of them are offering less than Rs 8,000 for duty of eight to ten hours. While in every Sunday’s newspaper you can see call centres’ executives offering attractive salaries, but when people go over for an interview they are offered less than five figures. According to most of the call centres’ employees call centres have started losing charm. This is, firstly, because the job is stressful in nature. Unlike other ordinary jobs, the call centres’ employees work at night, because night hours in Asia coincide with working hours in Europe and US, where the customers of the companies are living. Thus, the call centres’ employees are deprived of their night’s sleep and a majority of them cannot keep up with such a job for a long time.It is quite unfortunate that 10 percent of English-speaking people outside the US and United Kingdom live in Pakistan, but there are only a few call centres here while in India there are more than 350,000, which constitute a big revenue earning industry. According to the industry’s analysts, the overseas clients continuously wanted the price to be lowered, which adversely affected the quality of service. Poor quality of service, in some cases, resulted in frustration to customers who sometimes use insulting tones while complaining to the operators. The Indian operators naturally did not like abusive customers. This was one of the reasons why the majority of the call centres’ employees decided to quit their jobs in the very first year.

Bin Laden has a 46% approval rating in Pakistan. US 19% and al Qaeda 43 %

Poll: Bin Laden tops Musharraf in Pakistan

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf -- a key U.S. ally -- is less popular in his own country than al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, according to a poll of Pakistanis conducted last month by an anti-terrorism organization.

Additionally, nearly three-fourths of poll respondents said they oppose U.S. military action against al Qaeda and the Taliban inside Pakistan, according to results from the poll conducted by the independent polling organization Terror Free Tomorrow.
"We have conducted 23 polls all over the Muslim world, and this is the most disturbing one we have conducted," said Ken Ballen, the group's head. "Pakistan is the one Muslim nation that has nuclear weapons, and the people who want to use them against us -- like the Taliban and al Qaeda -- are more popular there than our allies like Musharraf."
The poll was conducted for Terror Free Tomorrow by D3 Systems of Vienna, Virginia., and the Pakistan Institute for Public Opinion. Interviews were conducted August 18-29, face-to-face with 1,044 Pakistanis across 105 urban and rural sampling points in all four provinces across the nation. Households were randomly selected.
According to poll results, bin Laden has a 46 percent approval rating. Musharraf's support is 38 percent. U.S. President George W. Bush's approval: 9 percent.
Asked their opinion on the real purpose of the U.S.-led war on terror, 66 percent of poll respondents said they believe the United States is acting against Islam or has anti-Muslim motivation. Others refused to answer the question or said they did not know.
"We failed in winning hearts and minds in Pakistan," Ballen told CNN. "In fact, only 4 percent said we had a good motivation in the war on terrorism."
Seventy-four percent said they oppose U.S. military action against al Qaeda and the Taliban inside Pakistan.
After American relief efforts following the October 2005 earthquake in Pakistan's Kashmir region, 46 percent of Pakistanis had a positive opinion of the United States, according to the poll. But as of last month, only 19 percent reported a favorable opinion.
Meanwhile, al Qaeda has a 43 percent approval rate; the Taliban has a 38 percent approval rate; and local radical extremist groups had an approval rating between 37 percent to 49 percent.
Views of U.S. could improve, responses indicate
There were a few bright spots in the poll results, however. Opposition leader Benazir Bhutto -- a relatively moderate and progressive figure, as well as a woman -- had a 63 percent approval rating.
Seventy-five percent of poll respondents said suicide bombings are rarely or never justified.

And a majority of Pakistanis said their opinion of the United States would improve if, among other things, there were increases in American aid to Pakistan, American business investments and the number of visas issued for Pakistanis to work in the United States.
Terror Free Tomorrow is a non-partisan, nonprofit group in Washington, D.C., and according to its Web site is "the only organization dedicated to a new strategic vision: Leading the fight against terror by winning the popular support that empowers global