Shireen Mazari's heartburn on the India-US pact

Indo-US scheme of things

Shireen M Mazari

For those in Pakistan who still long for a strategic partnership with the US, the recent ten-year military agreement between the US and India should be a clear indication of the global and regional realities confronting Pakistan. Clearly, a long-term strategic relationship with the US is not part of this reality. As for the muddled pronouncements coming from the boss of Scherazade Hotel, Islamabad, it is not an issue of Pakistan going into panic mode. Of course there is no need to panic but that is not the issue here. What is more important is to take clear stock of the situation and the implications for Pakistan of this agreement -- and there are critical implications for us.

Taking some of the central factors of the Indo-US defence agreement one by one, the fallout for Pakistan can be assessed more clearly. The most important, both in the short-term and long-term, is the Indo-US agreement to cooperate on missile defence (MD). This is not surprising given that India was the first state that welcomed the US decision to launch into a missile defence programme. Since then, India has set itself on the course for acquisition of a similar capability -- beginning with acquiring Russian aerial platforms, the Phalcon radar system from Israel and a plan for the acquisition of the Arrow missile system from the US. India's acquisition of missile defence capability directly destabilises the nuclear deterrence in South Asia and also undermines Pakistan's doctrine of minimum deterrence and nuclear restraint. To sustain a credible deterrence Pakistan will have to begin multiplying its missiles and warheads very soon --as well as deploying its nuclear arsenal in a scattered fashion into the interior of the country. While there is no need for a direct arms race, the "minimum" will be moved to a much higher level unless Pakistan is able to also acquire missile defence capability -- which does not seem likely for quite some time.

Beyond Pakistan, India's acquisition of MD will also alter China's strategic calculations – especially since India is simply one US ally in the missile defence plan. Japan is another, and given the altering parameters of its defence policies and new aggressive demeanour with neighbours like China, the latter will have legitimate grounds for concern. So what the Indo-US plan is doing is to undermine the strategic stability not just in South Asia but in the East Asian region also.

This instability is further heightened by another component of the Indo-US defence agreement -- that of activating the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) in this region with India becoming a partner. The PSI is part of the US notion of "coalitions of the willing" which seeks to undermine prevailing international law -- in this case the law of the sea -- by attributing to members of the coalition the right to stop traffic on the high seas and in international airspace on a mere hint of suspicion of transportation of WMD material or components. One does not require too much wisdom to see how this pretext can be used to harass other states and their nationals -– especially given that there is no provision of compensation for wrongful interventions!

While many states would like to be part of the PSI, they have to be asked by the US and so far Pakistan seems to have been left out -- which should show clearly how absurd is the Pakistani claim of having a strategic relationship with the US. But then in relation to Pakistan, the US is targeting its nuclear capability through one ruse after another and one can be sure that the MD and PSI components of the Indo-US agreement all aim to delink India's nuclear status from that of Pakistan. The delinkage will be further accentuated if, as expected, the US lifts export controls for sensitive military technologies in the case of India, including nuclear technologies, during the visit of the Indian Premier to Washington. There are options available to Pakistan; some have been repeatedly stated in these columns but, unfortunately, we still seem to be unable to grasp the reality of the Indo-US scheme for the region.

Beyond the MD and PSI aspects, there is the element of joint weapons production between the US and India which implies transfer of state-of-the-art technology to India. This also includes joint military research and development projects. This again will put pressure on Pakistan in terms of its nuclear and conventional weapon systems. Most critically, buying American now would make little sense because whatever Pakistan acquires -- once it has managed to move past Congressional blockades -- would be undermined because India would have a better counter to that system from the US. So even before Congress puts a possible spanner in the works we should re-examine our passion for the F-16 and look at European or the new Russian alternatives -- the latter performed exceptionally well in the last round of Indo-US joint air war games. The US has also committed to India for transformative systems in areas such as command and control and early warning. These will then become force multipliers for India and again put pressure on Pakistan's weapon systems.

All in all, the Indo-US defence agreement cannot be underplayed as it also has major long-term consequences for Pakistan which go beyond the purely military sphere. After all, where does Pakistan figure in the Indo-US scheme? If one looks at how the Pakistan-India "peace" process is unveiling, clearly one side -- Pakistan -- is at the giving end. It is indeed an irony that today we are seeking land trade facilities from India and India is holding back till we allow it its dream -- transit facilities across Pakistan into Afghanistan and beyond!

As for Kashmir, perhaps the less said, the better, but having moved us publicly into a flexible mode, the Indian leadership has gone back to its old hackneyed refrain of infiltration on the Kashmir front. In fact, according to some sources, the Indians have stated that if Pakistan can "kill terrorists" for the US on its western border with Afghanistan, it must do the same along the LoC for India! How have we allowed India to become so audacious and aggressive in its dealings with us? We really need to examine this question along with as exactly what we have achieved, atmospherics aside, in substantive terms from India on our core conflictual issues?

The US design for Pakistan is also not comforting. It focuses on accusations relating to terrorism and a desire to bestow US-style freedoms and democracy. Perhaps we could see as a role model a favoured democratic ally of the US, Singapore, when we want to improve our "democratic" credentials! In any case, we are neither strategic nor a partner with the US. We are merely an uncomfortable nuclear reality that they have to live with presently because of the present war on terrorism. For us this should be the first reality to accept before formulating our long-term options --and there are many, despite the prophets of doom.

The writer is Director General of the Institute of Strategic Studies, Islamabad

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