Pakistani economic figures fudged up
SBP report again raises issue of data credibility
By Sabihuddin Ghausi
KARACHI, Jan 23: The State Bank of Pakistan has again raised the issue of credibility of official statistics and data in its recent quarterly report, blaming the relevant agencies for under-reporting export figures, which appeared to have been covered up in November 2006 when export earnings were exceptionally up by about 24 per cent on a year-to-year basis.
According to the report, the slowdown in exports was found inconsistent with US and EU statistics on Pakistan textile imports and also with the exchange report data of the State Bank of Pakistan.
The State Bank data shows stronger export growth than being shown by the Federal Bureau of Statistics.
“This raises hopes that least a part of the strong deceleration in exports growth may be a statistical artefact due to unusual leads and lags in reporting,’’ the report says, while pointing towards an unusual 23.9 per cent rise in exports during November. There is a difference of $100 million between the FBS and SBP statistics of five-month export proceeds from July to November 2006. The SBP statistics give $5.91 billion export while FBS puts it at $5.92 billion.
As Pakistan’s export figures are at variance with the US and EU import statistics from Pakistan, the Chinese export figures also do not match with Pakistan’s imports from China.
The chairman of Central Board of Revenue, Mr Yousuf Abdullah, reported a difference of $1billion in 2003-04.
According to the CBR chairman, the Chinese customs reported $2.94 billion exports into Pakistan, the Customs in Pakistan said there were only $1.94 billion imports from China.
Some of the unscrupulous Pakistani traders enjoy bad reputation of abusing concessions and incentives. Cash rebate on export is one such incentive that has been massively abused by a nexus of traders and customs officials and that too has distorted official export figures.
A big scam of Rs20 billion was detected against leather goods and textile products’ exports to South Africa. The exports were said to be bogus, but the figures crept in the official statistics and leaders of leather industry attribute 30 per cent fall in leather exports in the current fiscal year to artificial rise shown in 2005-06 figures.
Way back in the decade of 80s and in 90s, the textile associations traded accusations of misusing cash rebates in which exporters were alleged to have drawn cash rebates that far exceeded the exports.
Official trade statistics, price indices, poverty and unemployment ratios have been a subject of controversy for long in Pakistan and of all the persons, no less than late President Ghulam Ishaq Khan had questioned the credibility of government price indices in his annual presidential address before a joint parliamentary session in 1993.
Recently, about six years ago, the first foreign minister of the military cabinet of General Musharraf, Abdul Sattar Khan, ridiculed the then federal secretary of statistics division when he made a presentation on official price indices.
“My wife purchases grocery from the market. She does not find goods being sold on prices given in your indices,’’ Mr Sattar is reported to have remarked before General Musharraf and his cabinet members.
Both the governments of Benazir and Nawaz Sharif were too accused of fudging the official figures. It is not different with Musharraf and Shaukat Aziz.
When Shaukat Aziz was the finance minister, he was blamed for suppressing a poverty survey report which was denied officially with an explanation that it has been held back for proper processing of data.
A poverty cluster survey, carried out with the support of Unicef in Sindh about two years ago, is gathering dust because “Islamabad forbids provinces to give their poverty assessments,’’ to quote a senior official.
When the federal government decided to rebase national economy on the year 2000-01, the practicing and reputed consultancies questioned the doubling of the size of national economy to almost Rs6 trillion from about Rs3 trillion. There was a demand to share information on modalities for rebasing the economy. This request was accepted.
Only recently, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its latest country report on Pakistan again called for revamping of Pakistan’s statistical organisation.
The IMF suggestion is for a quarterly monitoring of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), monitoring of GDP and economic indicators at provincial levels, more effective assessment of employment ratios.
As recently as this week on Monday, the Pakistan-Japan Business Forum has set up a Study Group that among other things will recommend measures to check mis-declaration and under-invoicing in trade between the two countries.
By Sabihuddin Ghausi
KARACHI, Jan 23: The State Bank of Pakistan has again raised the issue of credibility of official statistics and data in its recent quarterly report, blaming the relevant agencies for under-reporting export figures, which appeared to have been covered up in November 2006 when export earnings were exceptionally up by about 24 per cent on a year-to-year basis.
According to the report, the slowdown in exports was found inconsistent with US and EU statistics on Pakistan textile imports and also with the exchange report data of the State Bank of Pakistan.
The State Bank data shows stronger export growth than being shown by the Federal Bureau of Statistics.
“This raises hopes that least a part of the strong deceleration in exports growth may be a statistical artefact due to unusual leads and lags in reporting,’’ the report says, while pointing towards an unusual 23.9 per cent rise in exports during November. There is a difference of $100 million between the FBS and SBP statistics of five-month export proceeds from July to November 2006. The SBP statistics give $5.91 billion export while FBS puts it at $5.92 billion.
As Pakistan’s export figures are at variance with the US and EU import statistics from Pakistan, the Chinese export figures also do not match with Pakistan’s imports from China.
The chairman of Central Board of Revenue, Mr Yousuf Abdullah, reported a difference of $1billion in 2003-04.
According to the CBR chairman, the Chinese customs reported $2.94 billion exports into Pakistan, the Customs in Pakistan said there were only $1.94 billion imports from China.
Some of the unscrupulous Pakistani traders enjoy bad reputation of abusing concessions and incentives. Cash rebate on export is one such incentive that has been massively abused by a nexus of traders and customs officials and that too has distorted official export figures.
A big scam of Rs20 billion was detected against leather goods and textile products’ exports to South Africa. The exports were said to be bogus, but the figures crept in the official statistics and leaders of leather industry attribute 30 per cent fall in leather exports in the current fiscal year to artificial rise shown in 2005-06 figures.
Way back in the decade of 80s and in 90s, the textile associations traded accusations of misusing cash rebates in which exporters were alleged to have drawn cash rebates that far exceeded the exports.
Official trade statistics, price indices, poverty and unemployment ratios have been a subject of controversy for long in Pakistan and of all the persons, no less than late President Ghulam Ishaq Khan had questioned the credibility of government price indices in his annual presidential address before a joint parliamentary session in 1993.
Recently, about six years ago, the first foreign minister of the military cabinet of General Musharraf, Abdul Sattar Khan, ridiculed the then federal secretary of statistics division when he made a presentation on official price indices.
“My wife purchases grocery from the market. She does not find goods being sold on prices given in your indices,’’ Mr Sattar is reported to have remarked before General Musharraf and his cabinet members.
Both the governments of Benazir and Nawaz Sharif were too accused of fudging the official figures. It is not different with Musharraf and Shaukat Aziz.
When Shaukat Aziz was the finance minister, he was blamed for suppressing a poverty survey report which was denied officially with an explanation that it has been held back for proper processing of data.
A poverty cluster survey, carried out with the support of Unicef in Sindh about two years ago, is gathering dust because “Islamabad forbids provinces to give their poverty assessments,’’ to quote a senior official.
When the federal government decided to rebase national economy on the year 2000-01, the practicing and reputed consultancies questioned the doubling of the size of national economy to almost Rs6 trillion from about Rs3 trillion. There was a demand to share information on modalities for rebasing the economy. This request was accepted.
Only recently, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its latest country report on Pakistan again called for revamping of Pakistan’s statistical organisation.
The IMF suggestion is for a quarterly monitoring of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), monitoring of GDP and economic indicators at provincial levels, more effective assessment of employment ratios.
As recently as this week on Monday, the Pakistan-Japan Business Forum has set up a Study Group that among other things will recommend measures to check mis-declaration and under-invoicing in trade between the two countries.
posted by India News Watch at 8:08 PM
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