Terror pipeline flows to Pakistan

By Cam Simpson

Chicago Tribune

(MCT)

WASHINGTON - A small group of American "jihadists" uses paintball guns to conduct weapons training in the woods of northern Virginia. A 23-year-old Lodi, Calif., man is convicted of providing material support to terrorists. Extremists are arrested in raids across Australia before they can allegedly stage attacks in Sydney and Melbourne, the nation's two largest cities.

Increasingly, such seemingly disparate cases involving "homegrown" terror groups, share connections to one place: Pakistan.

The alleged plot to blow up U.S.-bound, trans-Atlantic jetliners foiled by British officials adds another, and potentially more significant entry to the growing list. It could also add a dimension not seen since the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks in terms of scale, sophistication and leadership being provided from abroad for a seemingly local group of terrorist "self-starters," according to senior U.S. intelligence officials.

Until recently, many counterterrorism officials believed that extremist enclaves in Pakistan largely offered inspiration, ideological inculcation or even limited training for a new generation of militants living in the West who became radicalized or inspired by al-Qaida propaganda.

The potential lethality of these cells ranged from the apparently innocuous, such as the so-called paintball jihadists in Virginia, to the extreme, including the London transit bombers who killed themselves and 52 others last year.

But the nature of the alleged trans-Atlantic plot foiled last week, a scheme that appears to have required substantial technical expertise and detailed planning, suggests the "homegrown" groups that pose the greatest terrorism threat may now be receiving more significant support, if not direct coordination, from within Pakistan.

While much is still unknown, including whether there were any substantive ties between the alleged trans-Atlantic plotters and senior al-Qaida leaders hiding in Pakistan, current and former senior U.S. intelligence officials say Pakistan clearly serves as a bridge.

On one side are militants from the West who want to join the global jihad. On the other are more experienced extremists who can help fulfill those wishes, offer guidance, or even serve as conduits for senior al-Qaida lieutenants.

Pakistani officials alleged Friday that a key operative they arrested about one week earlier, whose capture helped unravel the plot, is linked to al-Qaida. But in making that claim about Rashid Rauf, a British national of Pakistani descent, officials in Pakistan did not provide details of his alleged connections.

A U.S. intelligence official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said that Rauf's ties to al-Qaida were still being assessed, but determining the strength of the alleged link was of paramount importance.

"He's spoken to somebody, but we are not sure who," the intelligence official alleged of Rauf's communications with al-Qaida.

With or without direct ties to Osama bin Laden's terror network, Pakistan's status as a seemingly unshakeable haven for militants taking aim at targets in the West is likely to complicate the already delicate relationship Washington maintains with the regime of President Pervez Musharraf.

As the recent arrests of Rashid Rauf, a British national of Pakistani descent, and others show, Musharraf has been a key ally in fighting extremists. But those same arrests also prove his nation continues to offer redoubts for terrorists.

U.S. officials also are well aware that their support for Musharraf can endanger his power, or even his life. Extremists have twice tried to assassinate him since he began targeting militants inside Pakistan.

Citing a Pakistani connection to virtually every so-called homegrown terror cell that has recently come to light, a second senior intelligence official in Washington said one significant mystery remained: Are al-Qaida operatives in Pakistan recruiting would-be terrorists, or are the would-be militants going to Pakistan on their own to find guidance?

Clearly, the senior intelligence official said, there is evidence of a "reverse underground railroad" of militants flowing into Pakistan before returning home with a desire to sow mayhem.

But this senior intelligence official, who also agreed to speak only on the condition of anonymity, said there is still a possibility that "a trusted (al-Qaida) lieutenant" is actively seeking middlemen in Pakistan and beyond who can in turn feed the organization with willing operatives from the West.

The first intelligence official alleged that Rauf was clearly commanding the foiled London plot from within Pakistan, using computers and other means of communication. This intelligence official alleged that Rauf provided "direction, guidance, responsibility and authority."

This intelligence official also said the foiled plot might blur the lines investigators have constructed around terrorist cells - defining them as commanded by a traditional terror group, or as spontaneous and homegrown, inspired to answer bin Laden's call for global jihad within their communities.

"Are they homegrown if they are directed by somebody out of Pakistan versus them actually coming out of Pakistan?" the official asked. "It's a matter of how you define that."

Officials worldwide have been preoccupied for more than two years by a fear of terror groups consisting of "self-starters" - men who become radicalized on their own and decide to conduct operations without the support of an extremist network, or with only tenuous connections. Instead of taking orders from al-Qaida leaders, these terrorists act on what they believe is al-Qaida's behalf.

Although bin Laden has always seen the incitement of terrorism as one of his primary roles, al-Qaida has been viewed for the past couple of years as more of a global ideology than an actual terror network.

The March 11, 2004, synchronized bombings of trains at the height of rush hour in Madrid, attacks that left 192 people dead, were generally viewed as the first significant such assault.

Whether there was direct al-Qaida involvement in the foiled trans-Atlantic plot, the growing sophistication of the new terror cells holds frightening potential, said Michael Scheuer, the former head of the CIA unit assigned to hunt bin Laden.

"I really do think that that's one of the most disturbing things - that these homegrown cells obviously have had a learning curve," Scheuer said in a phone interview. "This was a very, very well thought-out plan. . . . It wasn't a pickup squad. There were a lot of moving parts."

John McLaughlin, the Bush administration's former acting chief of Central Intelligence, said in a phone interview that he believes there is a viable al-Qaida network existing along Pakistan's border with Afghanistan - and that it's drawing militants from across the globe.

"There is still a place where these local guys can go - whether they are from Toronto or Madrid or London - someplace where they can go and . . . come into contact with people who work for al-Qaida," McLaughlin said of the border area.

He said he is persuaded by recent evidence that two of the four London transit bombers received more than basic training at militant camps in Pakistan.

Martyrdom videos capturing the last wishes of two of the bombers were released by al-Qaida in July, to coincide with the one-year-anniversary of the attack. They strongly suggested to McLaughlin "that there was some role of central leadership for al-Qaida" in the plot, he said, adding: "They were in touch with someone in Pakistan who was able to help them think through and carry out the plot."

Musharraf has repeatedly dismissed ties between his nation and global terror plots, although current and former intelligence officials say his claims are politically based and demonstrably false.

In the wake of London's train bombings he declared that his security services had "completely shattered al-Qaida's vertical and horizontal links and smashed its communication and propaganda setup. Therefore, it is absolutely baseless to say that al-Qaida has its headquarters in Pakistan, and that terror attacks in other parts of the world in any way originate from our country."

But several homegrown plots also have been uncovered or alleged by authorities around the globe with links to Pakistan.

Eleven men were charged in the Virginia case for allegedly training with Laskar-e-Taiba, a Pakistani militant group long designated as an al-Qaida affiliate by the U.S. Nine were convicted and two were acquitted.

Hamid Hayat, of Lodi, Calif., was convicted in April of providing material support to terrorists after training with militants in Pakistan. At least one of 17 suspects arrested late last year in Australia, during raids in which authorities seized precursor chemicals and instructions for manufacturing explosives similar to those suspected in the transatlantic plot, also allegedly trained with Pakistani militants.

---

© 2006, Chicago Tribune.