Pakistan government GDP numbers have no credibility: Numbers without surveys

'Flawed methodology' mars credibility of GDP growth rate

From MEHTAB HAIDER
ISLAMABAD-The use of ‘flawed methodology’ have raised questions over the credibility of provisional GDP growth of 6.6% in outgoing fiscal mainly because Ministry of Finance showed 8% growth for livestock without knowing the results of recently done census report and 9.3% growth for small and household manufacturing without conducting any survey.
The independent economists have pointed out that the government had shown 9.3% growth in Small and Household manufacturing sector in Economic Survey for 2005-06 without conducting any survey to gauge its real number.
From 2000-2001 to 2004-05, the small and household growth remained constant at the level of 7.5% in last five years but it suddenly jumped up to 9.3% in outgoing FY 2005-06 without any basis.
“The government did not conduct any survey and incorporated growth of power looms sector which grew by over 20 percent in FY 2005-06,” an official source confirmed while talking to The Nation.
The independent economists say that the government should have adopted the same methodology for previous years but it was changed only for 2005-06 in order to show 6.6% GDP growth in outgoing financial year as overall manufacturing sector was not showing the desired number.
When contacted Dr Kaiser Bengali told this scribe that there is no hard data for many sectors of economy such as livestock, ownership and dwellings and many others where the economic managers could easily manipulate the figures for obtaining the desired results.
He emphasized the need to improve data collection system.
The independent economists also figured out that the government had conducted livestock census but its results are not yet made public. However, the government showed 8% growth in livestock, which enabled the government to achieve overall agri growth at 2.5% in FY 2005-06.
The growth in livestock sector stood at 3.8% in FY 2000-2001, 3.7% in 2001-02, 3% in 2002-03, 2.5% in 2003-04 and 2.3% in 2004-05. The growth of this sector suddenly jumped up to 8% in FY 2005-06.
When this scribe contacted to Ministry of Finance high-ups, they said the Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock (MINFAL) provided the data to National Accounts Committee and on basis of this data the government showed its growth of 8% in outgoing fiscal year.
“We received data from MINFAL and National Accounts Committee also granted its nod for estimating growth figures,” the official added.
The government, the official said has hired services of a German consultant for removing anomalies in its methodology for measuring GDP growth figures. The growth figures were estimated in transparent manner in front of everyone and donors are also on board in this connection, the official claimed.
According to official communication of MINFAL regarding livestock growth numbers, the number of cattle increased from 24.2 million in 2004-05 to 25.5 million in FY 2005-06. The number of buffaloes increased from 26.3 million in FY 2004-05 to 28.45 million in 2005-06.
The number of sheep increased from 24.9 million in FY 2004-05 to 25.5 million in 2005-06 while number of goats increased from 56.7 million in 2004-05 to 61.9 million in 2005-06. Interestingly, the number of camels stood at the same level of 7.7 million in FY 2004-05 and FY 2005-06.
The number of horses increased from .31 million in 2004-05 to .34 million in 2005-06. The total milk production increased from 29.4 million tons in FY 2004-05 to 31.3 million in 2005-06.