U.S. May Sell F-16s To India, Pakistan

From the Wall Street Journal

Policy Shift Would Signal Tacit Acceptance of Rivals'
Possession of Nuclear Arms

WASHINGTON – Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is expected to signal U.S. willingness to sell F-16 fighter jets to both Pakistan and India when she visits the South Asian rivals this week, according to U.S. officials and others with knowledge of the matter.

The high-profile sales would be a major policy shift for the U.S. and a final step toward tacit acceptance of both countries' possession of nuclear weapons. It also could draw charges of a double standard from European countries since the U.S. has been criticizing the European Union's plan to lift its arms embargo on China.

The tentative plans call for the U.S. to sell Pakistan about two dozen of the aircraft, which are made by Lockheed Martin Corp. The Indians, who still are shopping for jets, could buy as many as 125 if they settle on the F-16.

The jets for Pakistan would be built at Lockheed's Texas plant. If the Indian deal goes forward, the first dozen jets would be built in the U.S. and then production would shift to India. The plane's forward fuselage, which contains the aircraft's most sensitive electronics equipment, would continue to be made in the U.S., said a defense-industry official.

Any deal would hinge on congressional approval. As of yesterday, the administration hadn't informed Capitol Hill of its intentions. Congressional aides predicted the administration could have a tough fight in the House to win approval of the sales to Pakistan.

Pakistan, a pivotal U.S. ally in the war on terrorism, has pushed for years to buy the jets, but was blocked first by U.S. sanctions and then by Washington's concerns about destabilizing the fragile political and military balance in the region. Most of the sanctions were lifted after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.

The U.S. saw an opportunity to maintain a perceived evenhandedness once the Indians made clear in recent months they were planning a large purchase of sophisticated fighter jets. Until now, India's main military supplier has been Russia.

Lockheed has been pushing Washington hard on both sales. Lockheed officials have told the U.S. that unless it receives new orders by October for the F-16, it will have to begin shutting down its production line late this year.It takes three years to build an F-16, so some work would continue at the facility through 2008.

The F-16 is a single-engine fighter capable of waging air-to-air combat missions and attacking targets on the ground. It is by far the most common fighter in the air fleets of the U.S. and many of its Western allies. Compared with the F-15 -- the U.S. Air Force's most sophisticated fighter jet -- the plane is relatively inexpensive and not as difficult to maintain.

Michael O'Hanlon, a defense analyst at the Brookings Institution, says F-16 sales have a lot more to do with U.S. strategic relations with both Pakistan and India, than with the strategic balance in the region. "You can't let Pakistan down in the war on terrorism. And you want India to be your new best friend among the big democracies," he said.

Late last year, the Pentagon told Congress it planned to sell Pakistan about $1.2 billion in arms, including eight P3-C Orion surveillance planes, made by Lockheed. The Bush administration's budget for the 2006 fiscal year includes about $640 million in security and economic aid to Pakistan. In February, a Lockheed executive told reporters in India that the company had secured U.S. export licenses to sell P3-C planes as well as C-130J military cargo planes to India.

Pakistan bought F-16s in the 1980s, but Congress halted sales in 1990 to punish the country for its nuclear ambitions, under an amendment to the U.S. Foreign Assistance Act named after then-Sen. Larry Pressler. Pakistan paid for about 28 jets that were never delivered, and it took eight years before Washington agreed to pay Pakistan back in lieu of delivering the jets. The bulk was paid in cash, the balance in wheat. Pakistan continued to want the jets, and resuming sales could resolve the protracted disagreement.

The U.S. has since embraced both countries with increasing warmth while trying to balance their rivalry. It is unclear whether the proposal will satisfy either India or Pakistan.

The U.S. has declared Pakistan a "major non-NATO ally," giving it greater access to military technology and surplus defense equipment. It also has opened a new "strategic partnership" with India – promising increasing cooperation with the country's civilian, nuclear and space programs, but still providing fewer benefits than so far given to Pakistan as a front-line state in the fight against al Qaeda.

It isn't certain that India, which has proved adept at upgrading less expensive Russian fighter jets, will opt to buy the U.S. planes. In a military exercise last year, the Indian air force, flying Russian Sukhoi and MiG fighters as well as French Mirage warplanes, scored victories in mock dogfights against U.S. F-15s. In a potential confrontation with Pakistan, India likely would be able to leverage its software and electronics prowess and its military cooperation with countries such as Israel to gain an advantage over Pakistan's F-16s.